Article by Phyllis
In the recent Europe and the United States economy stormy and Asian nations of the economic slowdown and the local currency in a big decline have become the focus of attention from all circles. The data show that with the United States, Japan and the euro area weakened demand for imports, since the second quarter of this year, the Asian economic growth is more and more obvious signs of slowing. And the international monetary fund recently Asian economic growth expected this year will be from April is expected to grow 6.8% down to 6.3%. On the other hand, as a large number of recent capital outflow Asia, including India rupees, Malaysia won, and Singapore dollar m Asian currencies depreciated appeared, including the depreciation of the Korean won amplitude is as high as 10%. Many investors worry, along with the European debt crisis endless miles, the American economy into a recession by risk, 2008 financial crisis in Asia economy almost on the brink of collapse of painful scene would starts again? 18, and our reporter, the attachment to HSBC Asia Pacific economic research joint competent in the greater China region, chief economist QuHongBin and HSBC economist FanLiMing think, western policy uncertainty continued, the economic crisis of the weekly at risk back growth. But for now, the Asian economies are still has certain advantages, can maintain a certain degree of vigor.
Double factors threat Asian economic growth
Close for a long time now, major western countries are difficult economic operation. In Europe, the sovereign debt crisis is gradually from the periphery to the core countries country spread, and its to economic entity infiltration and influence is also appears gradually; In the United States, the indications of a recession even in the government issued fiscal restraint policy has begun to appear before; In Japan, although at present condition is called smooth, its economic growth will be boosted by the reconstruction work, but this is far from enough with rallied. In addition to the western economy outside of landslide, many analysts worry, recent turmoil in global financial markets sharply, make Asian financial markets always rains, it could also be led to the Asian crisis of another way.
“For Asia is concerned, these phenomena shows that the two things. First, export will likely be a severe shock. But it may not have 2008 so bad.” FanLiMing said, but was harrowing experience is here, and the demand for western Asia the economy is still important. Second, Europe and the financial turmoil has relay happened to Asia. Along with the money and capital markets fall, in the past three years have been the driving force of economic growth and the domestic demand will be weakened.
However, it is thought that, from the data on look, Asia the state of the economy is still healthy. Throughout the whole of Asia, with a few of the falling Numbers, and other data are appear to be strong. “This does not let a person feel especially surprising: because although recent turmoil in financial markets, but economic data to reflect the financial turmoil to the real economy influence often over a period of time.” FanLiMing says, as in 2008, until September when lehman brothers collapse of Asian exports still strong growth. And when high inflation has started to affect business and consumer confidence, domestic demand remains robust. All this in the 2008 quarter after the occurrence of the global credit crisis thoroughly change: the relatively calm Asian market suddenly ushered in the storm of shock.
Asian economy can withstand the test
QuHongBin, says that in Europe and America, under the background of the economy is weak, the Asian financial market turmoil happened is completely understandable. “We still have a lot of reasons to believe that the unrest will not like the 2008 financial crisis so serious.” QuHongBin said. In China, for example, although people have been worried about China’s economic hard landing, but China’s economic growth will remain strong. Economic growth on exports than dependency 3 years ago has declined dramatically, and at the same time the government investment will continue to support economic growth. Although the rate of growth of Asian economies in recent years have been down, but still keep optimistic to Asia’s future, because from the structure, Asian economic growth structure has changed, in recent years of western Asia economic demand has weakened the sensitivity.
And FanLiMing also think, even if foreign capital to continue to the Asian financial markets have important function, but for foreign pulls away and destroy the integrity of the local financial system Asia risk is also relatively controllable. The Asian market is still ample liquidity, excess savings for financial markets also provides beneficial security. While this does not mean that the financial markets are short-term impact will not serious. Instead, the impact in the short term will be serious. But Asia local financial institutions will poised to respond to the crisis, to maintain the size of credit growth. Because be good or bad, the Asian economies in recent years increased reliance on credit. “China’s robust economic and other Asian countries from the west to demand more dependent on exports to China.” He says, in addition, asean country again found a new economic growth point, especially with China trade between the neighbors were obviously improved.
It is difficult to cut into Asia common phenomenon
Many economists worry, while the Asian exports to the us and Europe to reduce the sensitivity, and have enough financial flexibility to avoid falling into long-term crisis, but it is still hard to avoid the impact of the following. As fears economic growth prospects, the central bank cut interest rates by Indonesia announced accident, this is the first time in more than two years of cut interest rates, which reflect the authorities policy focus has turned to stimulate growth from curb inflation. Have analysts think, this or will be the other Asian central Banks into the cycle of “light” to cut interest rates.
“If western countries can avoid such as the size of the crisis in 2008, the Asian central Banks is unlikely in the short term to cut interest rates start.” FanLiMing says, for three reasons. First of all, even if overall inflation performance is good, but the core inflation pressure is still greater. Price stability is Asia more and more controversial political issues. Therefore, the economies of central Banks to maintain its hard-won curb inflation results, not easily keep interest rates. Secondly, the 2008 disaster still is like concealed, way more underground. The collapse of the economic activity and subsequently in the rebound is unprecedented, so the inflation pressure and asset market obvious foam added fuel to the fire. Therefore, in 2011 the government has help city policy will be more cautious. Asian economies the government does not wish to thus increase inflation pressures and asset price bubbles risk. Third, more subtle is, the current into Asia the bond market has been unprecedented level of money, may change the central bank’s policy considerations way. In the exchange rate of the pressure, the bond investors hope the government do not be eager to cut rates. “Bond guard” is suddenly appeared in Asia. At least this is after the 2008 financial crisis of a big change
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